Purdon/Phelan team with plenty of firepower in Alexandra Park features tonight

By Michael Guerin

The North Island’s most powerful open class stable could win both major races at Alexandra Park tonight but they not quite sure who with.

Barry Purdon and Scott Phelan have the first three favourites in the Matamata Vets Holmes DG (8.24pm), the main pace tonight and two of the three top elects in the open trot and training great Purdon says he is happy with all five.

But while he suggests Merlin (R7, No.7) in the Holmes DG and Higher Power (R6, No.5) are their two most likely winners he also believes there is more to it than that.

The Holmes DG, named after one of Purdon’s all-time greats, is an automatic qualifier for the Go Media New Zealand Trotting Cup at Addington on Tuesday, November 10. It sees the main players from the Spring Cup two weeks ago return, when American Me was able to use his manners to lead and outsprint Better Knuckle Up, Jeremiah and Merlin in that order.

Tonight’s race differs in several ways, at 2700m it is 500m longer than the Spring Cup, American Me gets re-handicapped 10m to join Merlin on the 20m backmark and  Merlin and Better Knuckle Up should improve the most as they were fresh up last start. That has TAB bookies rating Merlin a $1.65 chance, which is awfully short for a backmarker in a small field, which can provide notoriously tactical racing at this stage of the season.

“I thought he [Merlin] was good fresh up and he will have improved with that,” says Purdon.

“So he is our top pick, he has been there and done it all before, but Better Knuckle Up will improve too.”

Better Knuckle has yet to win in seven career standing starts and was checked into a slight break in the Spring Cup but Merlin then sat on his back the entire race and didn’t make any real ground on him in what admittedly was a sprint home.

But Better Knuckle Up might begin better from wide on the 10m mark where he has room to move and come into line late which could see him stay in front Merlin and American Me, and possibly even head to the lead. Put him there and the fun and games really start. Would he be too quick for Merlin over a fast last 800m?

Or would young driver Harry Orange be willing to hand up to Merlin, or Jeremiah, should the stablemates come knocking?

Taking all of that in account Merlin still deserves to be favourite but Better Knuckle Up is more value at $3.60 even if he doesn’t win that often.

The super stable have Higher Power off 10m in Yabby Dam Farms Trot and he obliterated most of these over 2200m last time when he stepped straight to the lead and kept running.

He stays on that same 10m handicap tonight but a key rival in Hillbilly Blues gets 10m relief and the race is again 500m longer at 2700m.

That should bring Higher Power’s stablemate Meant To Be (20m) who has always been considered to be the superior horse, into play but again tactics and standing start manners will be crucial.

If Higher Power begins as quickly as last start and leads there would seem few attackers unless the drivers of Hillbilly Biues or Meant To Be fancy their chances of wresting the lead.

If Higher Power is allowed his way in front he should win again but if the race becomes a little more rough and tumble then Hillbilly Blues, Meant To Be and Belle Neige come into play.

Punters should be careful with the Purdon/Phelan pair of American Legacy and We Will Rise Again in Race 5 even though both are in the market.

“American Legacy is only having his first start and while he has good ability he will improve while we have placed We Will Rise Again on the unruly to try to help him settle so that will be his likely tactics early at least,” says Purdon.