Can anyone KO the champ in today's Go Media New Zealand Trotting Cup?

By Michael Guerin

The army of punters who want to back champion pacer Leap To Fame to win today’s $800,000 Go Media New Zealand Trotting Cup at Addington Raceway face the “Muhammad Ali paradox.”

Because there is no doubt that like the late, charismatic champion of the ring, Leap To Fame is the greatest.

He is the best pacer in this Cup, this Hemisphere, and one of the best to ever do it.

But like Ali, like almost all champions, Leap To Fame can be beaten.

That is sport and racing’s special allure, maybe its most compelling one, that even the greatest can get beat.

Ask most people to name at least one world heavyweight boxing champion and the answer will be Muhammad Ali.

Yet Ali was beaten by five different boxers in his professional career.

Guess what?

Exactly five different trainers have trained horses to beat Leap To Fame is his open class career.

Two of those trainers and horses they have beaten Leap To Fame with will be standing in his way again at Addington today.

Swayzee is Leap To Fame’s older half-brother and has beaten him three times for trainer Jason Grimson, who has also trained two of the other horses to ever beat Leap To Fame.

Kingman is the New Zealand Cup defending champion after he produced an extraordinary performance to come from near last to beat Leap To Fame 12 months ago.
He is trained and driven by Luke McCarthy, who has also trained horses to beat Leap To Fame five times, Kingman besting the champ three times last summer alone.

So the men and horses across the ring from Leap To Fame today are the exact men and horses who know how to beat him.

Hence his, and if you are a punter, your problem.

We know Leap To Fame is the greatest but do you feel comfortable taking $1.80 for him to win today’s Group 1?

Take Team Swayzee and Team Kingman out of this Cup and Leap To Fame would be close to unbeatable, with bad luck his most realistic threat.

But now there are genuine threats, opponents with proven punching power Leap To Fame punters don’t want to see connect.

The most logical way to beat Leap To Fame is to get in front of him, which is what Swayzee has done all three times he has earned the sibling skiting rights.

When Swayzee leads Leap To Fame will usually sit parked, his trainer-driver Grant Dixon not willing to risk bad luck following an inferior horse.

If that scenario eventuates today every time they go around a bend, and there are five bends in today’s 3200m Cup, the horse parked out covers two lengths more than the horse leading inside him.

Jab, jab, jab, jab, jab.

In the championship rounds, be it horse racing or boxing, those jabs add up.

Swayzee has drawn inside Leap To Fame in today’s standing start and Dixon admits their personal battle inside that first 400-600m, to see who can reach the lead first, maybe be more decisive than the three minutes that follow it.

“The start could decide the whole race,” Dixon says.

If Leap To Fame wins that early round and is in front with two laps to go the knockout blow will have been landed.

His $1.80 price will seem a gift and he will almost certainly win our most important harness race.

But if he doesn’t lead, if Swayzee can stay in front of him and start throwing those jabs, then Leap To Fame becomes vulnerable not just to him but to the enigmatic Kingman and even local speedster Marketplace.

Marketplace is Ferrari fast but not as tough as these Aussie brawlers so he wants the Rope-A-Dope, letting them punch themselves out before coming to life when it matters. That is a low percentage winning strategy, relying on champions to get tired, but low percentage is better than no percentage.

So it is possible and Marketplace and a bolter, ironically named Better Knuckle Up, are New Zealand’s best chances of restoring our battered national pacing pride.

To do that they need to stay out of the fight until the 12th round and ride the Addington roar home.

So what is most likely to happen in this New Zealand Cup?

Leap To Fame is likely to win.

Because that is what champions do more often that not.

But before you bet don’t forget, even The Greatest can get beat.

The New Zealand Trotting Cup, for pacing’s heavyweights, starts at 5.48pm.

Enjoy the fight.