The Bookie Breakdown - Harness Million Night

Welcome to the first edition of Bookie Breakdown 

By Ben Grimstone, the TAB's Trading Manager for Harness Racing

In this new column I'll delve into the why, how and what behind our tactics and results on the biggest harness meetings in New Zealand.

I'll pinpoint a handful of races from each meeting where betting patterns or our book behaved out of the ordinary, speak with the benefit of hindsight, and touch on the major races throughout.

I'll also aim to quash a few of the myths around bookmaking because, at its core, it is still built on opinion - bookie versus punter.

One of the most common assumptions is that when the favourite wins, the bookies lose and when a roughie wins, the bookies clean up. Like most generalisations, it contains a grain of truth, but it doesn't always tell the whole story. Pricing, trading and how the money is distributed across a race can flip that assumption entirely.

Alexandra Park – Harness Million Night

Race 5 :

This was a tough race to both price and trade which generally means, hopefully, tough for customers too. We opened War Cry and Time For Change as favourites, purely due to draws. Time For Change was the best backed runner in the race in terms of amount invested, holding 36% of total fixed odds bets. Queen Lizzy was the price we got wrong. Plenty of astute judges pointed out $11 was too big. We penalised her from the draw however that was quickly negated with a very positive drive. Her price halved into $5.50 and was our worst result in the race. River, the eventual winner, drifted from $16 out to $31 and held just 1% of total investment, so a great way to start the features for us bookies.

Race 6 :

A cracking race where we sat on the fence in terms of favouritism. We opened stablemates Belle Neige and Hillbilly Blues as equal $3.70 favourites, with Oscar at $3.90. After very early support dried up on Belle Neige, it became clear there was only one horse the market wanted as favourite and that was Hillbilly Blues. He ended up accounting for 51% of the hold, meaning he was backed like a $2 chance, which suggests our opening price, and even our closing price of $2.60, was too big. He had no luck and ran a huge race, suggesting the clients were bang on and we got lucky. Meant To Be held just 4% of total investment suggesting we could have drifted him late and firmed Hillbilly Blues. Another big result for us.

Race 7 :

This is where the customers got back on track. We chatted during the week and thought Daisy Bay was a slight risk from the draw, thinking there was a chance she would be shuffled back on the fence. We opened her at $4.60 knowing she would be well backed and closed $3.60, holding 39% of the money invested in the race. Had we been trading without that plan to risk Daisy Bay, you would have seen a price around $2.80 to $3 at the jump. Clearly, we were proven wrong. She showed plenty of tactical speed from the gate, got to the right spot and was too good. Great drive from Jacob Dunn and well played punters.

Race 8 :

Similar to the open class trot, a market where we sat on the fence. We opened four runners between $3 and $4.40, clearly stating we felt there were four main chances (The Lazarus Effect, Akuta, Merlin and Republican Party). The market completely disagreed. Only two horses were backed. The Lazarus Effect firmed from $3 into $2.70 and Merlin from $4.40 into $3.40, holding 70% of total money invested between them. Both were terrible results for us. After about 300 metres we knew we were in trouble with the market playing them lead and trail and they were bang on. The Lazarus Effect gets up the lane for a decent losing result for bookies as punters started to build some momentum.

Race 9 :

One of those races that prices itself. Tour Party was the obvious favourite, with Coal Fire the obvious second. In these kinds of markets where both bookies and customers are singing off the same hymn sheet, you generally see a very stagnant market from open to close. As a general rule, we struggle to sell $1.25 in singles as they are almost always put through multis, which makes it tough to quantify. However, on Friday night, we did have a client put $18k on at the $1.25. Thousands of multis ran through Tour Party and on top of that we offered a boosted quinella on both favourites, which cost us a further $15k. Once again, punters came out on top.

Race 10 :

Similar to the Cardigan Bay, not too much in the way of market movement. Jumal was $1.10 all day long, had everything go against him and was still too good. We sold plenty of Same Race Multis around the two Telfer runners to finish in the top four, so on top of every multi for the night finishing on Jumal, our Same Race Multis for the race returned minus 35%.

Wrap :

A night where punters came out on top. On reflection, we didn't do too badly from a pricing and trading perspective, Daisy Bay aside, just a couple too many well-found, high-profile favourites winning alongside a bloodbath in multis and boosted specials.

Well played team and until next time, hope you back a few winners, but not too many.