Guerin's top five for Cambridge

Racing journalist and presenter Michael Guerin's five plays for Cambridge's Night of Champions tonight.

1: The big one, The $1m Race by Grins. Don’t Stop Dreaming (R9, No.2) has more ways to win this race than his rivals and less ways to lose it. The $2 available is a fair price because if he leads he should win and even sitting in the running line he is the one to beat.

2: The other big one, the $600,000 TAB Trot. Callmethebreeze (R6, No.4) isn’t as safe a bet as Just Believe (3) but he is twice the odds so makes sense. Sensational in front if unpressured to get there so he can win leading but he was brilliant running down Just Believe in the Great Southern Star, a race not dissimilar to tonight, in February when he stalked him. Can be mentally fragile but the best win value relevant to winning chance in the race.

3: Downgrading: Wallflower (R3, No.11) has been placing in far hotter fields and while second line draw doesn’t help will have too much speed for most of her rivals.

4: Risk vs reward: Joca’s Hill (R7, No.14): Looks an open class trotter in the making but galloped after 200m last week. The step up to 2700m will help tonight and while he is on a 20m handicap there are only three on the front line. If he trots all the way his $5 opening quote will be great money so worth the risk.

5: Early speed: We Walk By Faith (R5, No.6): High speed pacer who disappointed in NSW Derby but luckless when third in Northern Derby. Can really fly the gate and isn’t qualified for the Sires’ Stakes Final whereas key rival and favourite Cold Chisel is, so may look to work forward and if he leads will be very hard to catch.