Michael Guerin's race by race for Jewels day

 By Michael Guerin

 With 108 horses chasing the $1,275,000 up for grabs in nine group ones, Harness Jewels day is a race meeting like no other.

So to make it easier for punters, here is a look at the horses who can actually win and a betting strategy for the day.

 

Race 1, 12.15pm: Four-year-old pacing mares

While she hasn’t won a race this year Elle Mac looks a rating special, especially with Aussie visitor Major Occasion drawing very badly on the inside of the second line.

Elle Mac has been taking on the open class boys all season and was vey brave behind Turn It Up last Friday. She is almost certain to keep rolling forward, find the front and win.

Major Occasion is a good mare but faces a huge task and will have to come wide and sit parked at best. The rest are fighting for scraps.

Top three: Elle Mac, Major Occasion, Tiger Swift

The bet: Use Elle Mac (8) as a bank builder or multi anchor.

 

R2, 12.50pm: Two-year-old trot

One of trickier races of the day but Ultimate Stride (4) might simply be the best horse. Forgive his last-start gallop from inside of second line, his astute trainer says he is spot on.

Tailored Elegance is very professional but odds too short from the second line while One Majic Kenny has a huge hope if he behaves and Cracker Hill, Bolt For Brilliance and Muscle Mountain can all win.

Top three: Ultimate Stride, Tailored Elegance, One Magic Kenny.

The bet: Ultimate Stride (4) to win, small saver One Magic Kenny (2).

 

R3, 1.29pm: Two-year-old pacing fillies

The draw may have gifted this to Sweet On Me (7). She has been the best filly all season and while Amazing Dream has partially closed that gap, her second line draw means the favourite has a big advantage.

If Sweet On Me rolls to the lead over, most likely, Tiffany Rose, she should win but the latter would then appeal as a great place bet. If the favourite has to work hard, then Amazing Dream will profit.

Top three: Sweet On Me, Amazing Dream, Tiffany Rose.

The bet: Tiffany Rose (6) a place.

 

R4, 2.03pm: Two-year-old male pace

Much like the previous, what looked a two-horse race may have been decided by One Change drawing the front and Flying Even Bettor drawing the second line.

The favourite should now lead, with the likes of William Wallace and Virgil in close attendance, and Flying Even Bettor will need to do something special to get over the top.

Top three: One Change, Flying Even Bettor, Virgil.

The bet: One Change (6) to win.

 

R5, 2.38pm: Three-year-old trot

Enhance Your Calm (10) is undoubtedly the best of a wonderful crop but he will need to be from the second line.

But the huge amount of gate speed on the front line could set the race up for him. Still, any glitch in his manners will be punished.

Get Lucky is the blowout horse as he is flying while if Lotamuscle can lead or trail he too can win. Add in Tickle Me Pink and visitor All Cashed Up and there are a lot of options.

Top three: Enhance Your Calm, Get Lucky, Lotamuscle.

The bet: Get Lucky (7) a place.

 

R6, 3.13pm: Three-year-old fillies pace

Match race between Belle Of Montana (1) and Princess Tiffany (5) that could be a lead-trail drag race up the straight.

Both are brilliant but I think Princess Tiffany can get the lead and the lack of mid-race pressure favours her. But Belle Of Montana leads their battle 3-1.

Top three: Princess Tiffany, Belle Of Montana, Kayla Marie

The bet: Trifecta for plenty 1-5/1-5/11.

 

R7, 3.53pm: Four-year-old male pace

Turn It Up is the Auckland Cup winner and should lead and win. Ashley Locaz is the next best in the race but his draw is not ideal so Henry Hubert and On The Cards can sit handy and fight out the placings with him.

Top three: Turn It Up, Ashley Locaz, Henry Hubert.

The bet: Trifecta 4/1-2-6/1-2-6.

 

R8, 4.33pm: Four-year-old trot

After what he did in the Anzac and Rowe Cups, Sundees Son has to be clear top pick and if he leads he should win. His manners can be troublesome though and Winterfell is most likely to exploit them while Majestic Man and a waning King’s Landing round out the winning hopes.

Top three: Sundees Son, Winterfell, Majestic Man.

The bet: Sundees Son (4) to win.

 

R9, 5.13pm: Three-year-old male pace

Jesse Duke is the only group one winner here and very hard to beat but the suggestion Heisenberg will try and hold the front could see the hot favourite sitting parked. So he is too short with the bookies.

 Still, finding other winning chances isn’t easy in what could be a banana-skin race to end the day.

Top three: Jesse Duke, Heisenberg, Gran Chico

The bet: Heisenberg (1) a place.

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